Jet fuel has doubled in price, so every African route case built in 2025 needs to be run again

Jet fuel cost an average of US$194 a barrel in Africa in early October 2026, 115% more than a year earlier and more than twice the global average of US$88 that IATA expected for 2026 before the war in Iran. Traffic is still growing, but at this price a route that broke even at a 70% load factor in 2025 needs about 94% to 102% at the same fares. Route cases built on last year's fuel price overstate what an airline can earn, so airports and governments that want to win or keep routes now have to help on cost as well as on demand.

Demand keeps growing and profit has almost gone

African airlines are still adding passengers. Their international traffic rose 8.0% in September 2026 on a year earlier, while traffic worldwide fell 0.5%, and Africa has 25.2 million scheduled seats this November, 6.3% more than last November.

Profit has gone the other way. In June, IATA cut its 2026 forecast for African airlines to a net profit of about US$0.1 billion, or US$0.40 per passenger, from US$0.3 billion and US$2.10 per passenger in 2025. Airlines worldwide are expected to earn US$4.50 per passenger, half their 2025 figure, as the industry's fuel bill rises to US$351 billion, 31.4% of its operating costs.

Fuel doubled because most of Africa's jet fuel passes one strait

The war in Iran shut most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz from the end of February 2026. About 70% of Africa's jet fuel and kerosene imports pass through it, according to the Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA). In Southern Africa the average price rose from about R8.50 a litre in mid-February to more than R30 by mid-April, and in landlocked Malawi it passed R50. Stocks were short: in March, Zambia had about 10 days of supply and South Africa three to four weeks, against about 50 days in Kenya.

Prices have come down from the peak, but not far. IATA's monitor put Africa's average at US$219.25 a barrel in the week to 3 April and US$193.85 in early October. Shipping through the strait has recovered from its wartime low but is not back to normal. African airlines were paying more than most before the war: IATA estimates that fuel in many African markets costs 17% more than the global average and makes up about 40% of African airlines' operating costs, against about 25% worldwide.

What US$194 a barrel does to one route

Take a two-hour sector flown by a 160-seat narrow-body that burns about 2.5 tonnes of fuel an hour: 5 tonnes a flight, or about 39 barrels.

What that does to the route depends on how much of its cost was fuel. At 40%, the typical African share, the flight now costs 46% more and fuel becomes 59% of the total; a route that broke even at a 70% load factor would need 102% at the same fares. At 30% the flight costs 35% more and the break-even load factor rises to 94%. In both cases the airline has to raise fares or surcharges, fly the route less often, or stop flying it.

Helm illustration. The price a year earlier follows from IATA's 115% increase; the burn rate is typical of a Boeing 737-800; one tonne of jet fuel is about 7.9 barrels; fares, other costs and hedging are left unchanged.

Airlines are passing the cost on and cutting thin frequencies

Most airlines in the Southern African Development Community have added fuel surcharges, AASA reports, and some have cut frequencies or combined flights, which saves fuel but weakens regional connections. FlySafair raised its surcharge by an average of 33% on 22 September, and Airlink says its fuel costs have doubled since February. Kenya Airways flew 9% less capacity in the first half of 2026 while its fuel costs rose 32%, and its loss after tax grew to KSh16.1 billion from KSh12.2 billion.

The cuts show in the schedules. South Africa has 2.0% fewer scheduled seats this November than last, and FlySafair, its largest domestic airline, 2.0% fewer, while Africa as a whole has 6.3% more.

Some governments have started on the cost side. Nigeria's regulator set jet fuel price ranges on 28 April (₦1,760 to ₦1,988 a litre in Lagos), the president approved a 30% cut in airlines' debts to aviation agencies, and airlines got a 30-day credit window to pay for fuel. AFRAA's Fuel Project pools its members' fuel demand at 190 airports to get better terms from suppliers.

The Gulf disruption is moving traffic to African airlines

Non-African airlines carried 63.3% of Africa's intercontinental traffic in June 2026, AFRAA estimates, and Emirates alone is the eighth-largest airline in Africa by seats this month. The Gulf carriers are flying less: Middle Eastern airlines' traffic fell 7.5% in September, and Emirates carried 22% fewer passengers in the six months to September than a year earlier. African airlines grew their international traffic 8.0% in the same September.

Ethiopian Airlines, which people familiar with its operations say can source fuel outside the Gulf, took on freight diverted from Gulf hubs in March, and it has agreed with Boeing to take eight 777-8 and two 777 freighters (reported on 3 October). How much of this shift lasts depends on how long the disruption does.

What airports and governments can do now

• Run every route case again at today's fuel price, and at a lower and a higher one (for example US$120 and US$220 a barrel), and show the break-even load factor at each. Airline network planners are using today's prices, and a case built at 2025 prices will not hold up in their review.
• Put support where the cost is. Airport and navigation charges, fuel throughput and storage fees and payment terms change the cost of every flight, while marketing support changes demand. IATA estimates that African taxes and charges are at least 15% above the global average, so there is room to act. Relief that is limited in time and tied to a route is easier to justify than a general cut.
• Make fuel supply predictable. AASA has asked suppliers, airports and governments to publish stocks, outstanding orders and allocation plans, because airlines need certainty on supply beyond a six-week horizon to plan their schedules.
• Use the window the Gulf disruption has opened. Talk now to African airlines, and to airlines that can fly direct, about routes whose passengers used to connect in the Gulf. The northern summer 2027 season starts on 28 March 2027, and airlines decide those schedules months before.

What we are watching

• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and IATA's weekly fuel price for Africa.
• AFRAA's Annual General Assembly in Libreville, 22 to 24 November.
• IATA's December outlook, its first full forecast for 2027.
• Which routes airlines file for the northern summer 2027 season.

How we did this

Figures come from IATA, AFRAA, OAG's public monthly data on Africa, airline results and the reports listed below, as published by 5 November 2026. Fuel prices are averages in US dollars per barrel. The route example is Helm's illustration with the assumptions shown under the table.

1. IATA, Profits and margins to shrink in 2026, but remain positive, Chart of the Week, 19 June 2026
2. IATA, Air passenger demand, September 2026, 30 October 2026
3. Aerospace Global News, IATA's 2026 outlook for African airlines, 10 June 2026
4. Travel News, IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor for Africa; FlySafair and Airlink on fuel; AFRAA Fuel Project, 12 October 2026
5. Oman Observer, IATA monitor, week to 3 April 2026, and IATA's pre-war forecast, 12 April 2026
6. Aerospace Global News, AASA on the jet fuel crisis, 30 April 2026
7. Ecofin Agency, Jet fuel at US$171 divides African airlines, 30 March 2026
8. ABC News, Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, 8 October 2026
9. AeroTime, IATA figures on fuel, taxes and charges in Africa, 12 October 2026
10. African Pilot, Kenya Airways results for the first half of 2026, 2 September 2026
11. OAG, Africa's aviation market, November 2026
12. AFRAA, African airlines' performance update, August 2026
13. BusinessDay and Reuters, Nigeria caps jet fuel prices, 29 April 2026
14. Dubai Media Office, Emirates Group results for the six months to September 2026, 5 November 2026
15. The Reporter, Ethiopian Airlines freighters and Durban, 3 October 2026